Macro Monday 9~ Initial Jobless Claims

ru.tradingview.com:

MACRO MONDAY 9 Initial Jobless Claims Historical Analysis and Important upcoming levels Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S.

workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. «Initial claims» refers to the government report on the number of workers applying for unemployment benefits for the first time following job loss First-time jobless claims can be a useful leading indicator because elevated numbers tend to lead to further economic weakness, and to decline ahead of a recovery Initial claims show the recent layoffs trend and does not a full picture of the labor market however it can provide more frequent data points indicating the trend in layoffs based on the recent decisions of U.S.

employers. The layoffs trend can be particularly telling at economic turning points. With that in mind lets look at the chart and its historic patterns. The Chart The chart looks complicated but is incredibly simple and can be summarised as follows. — Recessions are in red — Increases to Initial Jobless Claims prior to recessions are in blue — It is clear that prior to recessions Jobless Claims typically increase but for how long and by what amount? — The min/max increase in claims prior to recession is between 35k — 127k — The min/max timeframe of increasing claims prior to recession is 7 — 23 months — The average of the above is a 71k claims increase over a 14 month period. — At present we are below that average at 49k increase over 11 months @ 230,000 claims.